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The semi-annual cattle inventory
report from the National Agricultural Statistics Service
February 1 confirmed what most market analysts had predicted for
the last several months: beef cattle numbers are not only
static, they’re declining.
As of January 1 the inventory of
all cattle and calves stood at 96.7 million—down slightly from
97.0 million a year ago. All cows and calves are down 1% from 42
million to 41.8 million. Beef cow numbers declined 1% at 32.6
million, while the dairy cow herd increased 1% to 9.22 million
head.
The safe money says there will be
further liquidation this year. Beef replacement heifers were
down 4% last year (5.67 million head).
Attrition by state follows the
driest parts of the country last year, with a 6% reduction in
beef cow numbers in Alabama, Arizona, California, Nevada, and
Tennessee. States losing 5% of their herds included Georgia,
North Carolina, and West Virginia.
Iowa is down 5%, too, but because
of ethanol. In fact, there were reports at this year’s National
Cattlemen’s Beef Association meeting that some folks sending
bred cows to town because those owners intend to tear up pasture
and plant grain.
Key cattle states gaining at
least 5% more cows last year included Louisiana (5%), Montana
(10%), New Mexico (5%), Oregon (5%) and Utah (6%).
“The inventory report confirms
that feeder supplies will be tight in 2008, especially in the
first half of the year,” says Derrell Peel, livestock marketing
specialist at Oklahoma State University.
The National Agricultural
Statistics Service (NASS) provides national and state numbers in
the inventory report. For regional perspective, we’ve divvied up
the nation as described below. You can divide the nation how it
makes sense to you. Here, we were concentrating on dividing
mostly with north and south lines of demarcation, since the
majority of cattle typically flow from the west and east to the
center of country for feeding and harvest.
Regional Inventory Summary
West (AZ, CA, ID, MT, NV, OR, UT, WA)
Cows: 4,263,000 (13.9% of national herd*)
Replacements: 956,000
Given the horrendous drought in
California and other parts of the West, some may be surprised to
know that regional cow numbers actually increased by 2.8%, led
my Montana (+10%), Utah (+6%), Oregon (+5%) and Washington
(+3%). Other state inventories in the region declined 3-6%.
Replacements January 1 tell a
slightly different tale, however. Regionally, numbers stood at
1.6% less than a year earlier: California (-12.0%), Nevada
(-9.7%), Idaho (-9.5%) and Arizona (-9.1%). Washington producers
were the most optimistic, retaining 11.3% more than a year
earlier.
Southeast/Mid-Atlantic (AL, FL,
GA, KY, MS, NC, SC, TN, VA, WV)
Cows: 6,544,000 (20.9% of national herd*)
Replacements: 1,045,000
With continued widespread drought
in the Southeast—the epicenter is in Alabama—logic said cow
numbers would decline the most here, and they have by 3.9%. As
mentioned earlier, Alabama and Tennessee lost 6%, while
inventories in Georgia, North Carolina, and West Virginia were
5% lower. Mississippi was the only state in the region holding
steady.
Replacements begin the year 5.4% lower than a year ago, led by
Mississippi (-12.1%), Tennessee (-11.1%), Alabama (-9.5%) and
Florida (-6.9%). Only West Virginia (+5.1%) and West Virginia
(+1.7%) had more replacements than a year ago.South Central (AR,
LA, NM, OK, TX)
Cows: 9,209,000 (30.1% of national herd*)
Replacements: 1,490,000
All of these states added cows
last year, except for Texas (-1%), which is slightly surprising
considering the tremendous rains last year. New Mexico and
Louisiana each had inventories 5% higher than a year ago All
told, cow numbers in the region increased 0.6%.
Replacement numbers are even with last year on a regional basis,
though Texas numbers are 2.6% lower than a year earlier.
Arkansas (+7.1%) producers led the pack, followed by those in
Louisiana (+4.7%).
Central/Northern Plains (CO, KS, MO, ND, NE, SD, WY)
Cows: 7,992,000 (26.1% of national herd*)
Replacements: 1,590,000
Dry weather was a key reason
regional cow numbers declined 2.3%. All states dropped 1%-4%
compared to the previous year, though Kansas came in with 1%
more.
Kansas (+6.3%) was also one of two states with more replacements
than in 2007; the other was Colorado (+13%). North Dakota
producers cut the deepest (-18.3%), followed by Wyoming
(-16.7%), Missouri and Nebraska (-9.1%) and South Dakota
(-3.3%).
Overall, replacements in the region are 6.3% fewer than a year
ago.
Corn Belt (IL, IN, IA, OH)
Cows: 1,968,000 (6.4% of national herd*)
Replacements: 307,000
Cow numbers in Iowa declined 5%,
while numbers held basically steady in the other states.
Replacements paint a clearer picture about intentions in light
of rising grain costs and land prices. Replacement numbers are
down in Iowa (-9.4%), Ohio (-7.7%) and Illinois (-4.6%). Indiana
is the only one with more replacements (+5.3%). Across the
region, replacement inventory is down 6.4%.
Upper North (MI, MN, WI)
Cows: 773,000 (2.5% of national herd*)
Replacements: 206,000
Each of these states came in 2%
lower for cow numbers. Minnesota and Wisconsin begin the year
even with year-ago replacement numbers, though Michigan
replacements are 6.1% less than a year ago.
*Percentages calculated based on
state inventories included here.
You can find the complete Cattle
Inventory Report from the National Agricultural Statistics
Service at
http://usda.mannlib.cornell.edu/usda/current/Catt/Catt-02-01-2008.pdf |
