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Pig in a Poke
Pandemic
Influenza A could fade away or return this fall with a
vengeance.
by:
Wes Ishmael |
Only a few months ago schools were
closing and travel was being rearranged over fears about
Influenza A (H1N1), a new, fast-moving strain of the flu that
originated in Mexico.
Then, it seemed to fizzle out as quickly as it blustered in.
But, that’s an illusion. The virus continues to spread like
wildfire around the globe, even as it simmers in the United
States.
By the middle of June, according to the Centers for Disease
Control (CDC), 17,588 cases had been confirmed in the United
States—at least one in each state. Of those, 45 cases ended in
death. On June 11, the World Health Organization (WHO) declared
a global Influenza A pandemic with more than 70 nations
reporting cases; 35,928 confirmed cases worldwide and 163
deaths.
In declaring the pandemic, Margaret Chan, WHO Director-General,
explained, “Globally, we have good reason to believe that this
pandemic, at least in its early days, will be of moderate
severity. As we know from experience, severity can vary,
depending on many factors, from one country to another.”
For instance, Chan pointed out more than 99% of maternal deaths,
which are a marker of poor quality care during pregnancy and
childbirth, occur in the developing world. As well, she
explained 85% of the burden of chronic diseases is concentrated
in low- and middle-income countries.
“Although the pandemic appears to have moderate severity in
comparatively well-off countries, it is prudent to anticipate a
bleaker picture as the virus spreads to areas with limited
resources, poor health care, and a high prevalence of underlying
medical problems,” Chan said.
So far, young people—aged 5-24—are most susceptible to the
virus. Tom Frieden, CDC Director said in a June press conference
that 57% of U.S. cases have occurred in that age group, and 41%
of the hospitalizations. That’s unlike seasonal influenzas,
which typically focus on the elderly.
Frieden also noted 71% of those hospitalized in the U.S. due to
Influenza A have an underlying condition, such as asthma, immune
deficiencies and the like.
“This is not at this point a flu that’s anywhere near as severe
as the 1918 pandemic, for example,” Frieden emphasized. “The
declaration of a pandemic does not suggest that there’s been any
change in the behavior of the virus, only that it is spreading
in more parts of the world.”
Chasing Shape Shifters
What worries health officials is that influenza viruses are
masters of mutation and genetic re-assortment.
“We know, too, that this early, patchy picture can change very
quickly,” Chan said. “The virus writes the rules and this one,
like all influenza viruses, can change the rules, without rhyme
or reason, at any time.”
There can be sudden and dramatic changes by way of a process
called antigenic shift where at least two different strains of a
virus combine to create a new one. Though slower, something
called antigenic drift, also occurs where the virus’ antigens
that cause immune response change through mutation, enabling the
evolving virus to evade the immune system.
“Influenza is one of, if not the most, unpredictable of all
infectious diseases. And why it acts the way it does, why it
goes away in the summer, usually, why it has been more intense
in some areas than others is very hard to predict or very hard
to explain,” Frieden said.
Really, there are two flu seasons globally, or one long one,
depending on your preference. When it’s winter here in the
Northern Hemisphere, it’s summer in the Southern Hemisphere, and
visa versa. So there’s always winter somewhere in the world. For
indeterminate reasons, influenza takes the primary toll during
the winter. Recent research suggests that the Southern
Hemisphere serves as the incubator for influenza viruses, which
subsequently migrate to the north. In the case of Influenza A,
the concern is that when it makes its way back here next winter,
it could be a mutated, stronger version than what the U.S. has
experienced so far.
Folks are always quick to look for comparisons to the 1918
influenza pandemic Frieden mentioned. Most sources suggest that
as many as 500 million people were infected globally that time
around and that as many as 50 million died.
Aside from the strides in human medicine since then, Chan
emphasizes, “No previous pandemic has been detected so early or
watched so closely, in real-time, right at the very beginning.
The world can now reap the benefits of investments, over the
last five years, in pandemic preparedness.”
Tallying the Economic Toll
In the meantime, U.S. pork producers—and those in the rest of
the world—are still reeling from the economic impact Influenza A
has already wreaked in their industry.
When news about the new influenza virus first broke, it was
called Swine Flu because early testing indicated the virus’
genes were similar to viruses that are endemic in the North
American swine herd. Further testing revealed the new virus
contains genes from swine influenza viruses found in Asia and
Europe, as well as avian and human genes.
Of course, it’s easier to rope lightening than to stick the
proverbial genie back in the bottle. The name stuck, even though
health officials corrected the mislabeling early on. The damage
was done. Key U.S. pork export markets closed their ports to
U.S. pork.
“Before the flu outbreak, pork producers were losing money, but
things were looking up because we were heading into the grilling
season,” said Neil Dierks, CEO of the National Pork Producers
Council. “When this flu was misnamed, things went south, and
producers’ losses nearly doubled.”
According to Dierks, pork producers were losing $10.91 per pig
the first day the flu outbreak received wide media coverage
April 24. After two weeks of reporting about the flu by the
wrong name, pork prices fell dramatically, with producers losing
an average of $20.60 per pig, or nearly $8.4 million per day.
Though pork suffered the initial brunt, Tim Petry, livestock
marketing economist at North Dakota State University explains
Influenza A weakened the Mexican economy—a key export
destination for U.S. meat—which was already struggling. The
virus comes at an economic cost everywhere else, too.
“The entire international meat market will be affected,” Petry
says. “The U.S. is the leading exporter of pork in the world and
a leading exporter of beef and poultry products…Reduced exports
of pork will increase domestic supplies and pressure prices.
Lower than expected pork prices likely will adversely affect
beef demand.”
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