|
The West is
gasping…again.
Rain and good health
are a whole lot alike: when you’ve got it, you can’t imagine
that it will disappear; when you don’t, it’s tough to remember
what it was like when you did.
As of June 1 this
year, producers in about half of the nation, especially in the
West, were beginning to forget what feeling good felt like. At
the time about half of the nation was abnormally dry or
worse—and about a third of it was experiencing drought—about the
same as last year, according to Mike Hayes, Associate Director
of the National Drought Mitigation Center (NDMC).
What’s different
this year, explains Hayes is that the dry and drought areas
comprising those percentages have shifted geographically. Where
much of the High Plains were taking the most severe lumps last
year—and since 1999—this year the Southeast (centered on
northern Alabama) and the Southwest (from about Wyoming into
California) are.
Using California as
an example, as of the first of June, 96.69% of the state was
categorized by the U.S. Drought Monitor as experiencing
abnormally dry or drought conditions (ranking of D0 to D4—see
Drought Definitions). Last year at the same time the percentage
was only 7.54%; 1.52% in 2005.
For those in
California comparing the current straits to the last dry year in
2004 50.36% of the state was ranked D1 to D4; 92.32% is this
year at the same time. In 2004, 6.66% was ranked D2 to D4;
65.34% this year. Though none of the state is ranked in the most
severe drought category (D4) so far this time around—and it
wasn’t at the same time in 2004—34.4% is ranked as D3 this year;
none was when June started in 2004.
Nationally, Hayes
says about 0.38% of the nation was classified D4 at the
beginning of June, compared to 1.18% last year.
Of course, these
year-to-year comparisons don’t point to the fact that wide
swaths of the west have had some level of drought since 1999, or
that the mid 1990’s was one of the worst periods of drought the
West had experienced in modern times.
So, it’s not just
the intensity of drought, but the duration of them that get
people to thinking the one they’re slugging through might be one
of the worst in history.
For the record,
Hayes says the worst nationwide drought period in modern history
occurred in 1934-1936—the Dust Bowl years when 70% of the nation
was experiencing severe or extreme drought. During the worst
recent years—2000, 2002 and 2006—Hayes says about 40% of the
nation was experiencing the same level of drought.
What’s more, Hayes
explains scientists who analyze tree rings to gather historical
climatic data say it appears the drought in the 1930’s was
normal by historical standards.
Can we have another
drought that displaces people and resources like the Dust bowl
did, like Hurricane Katrina did most recently? Combine an
economic slow-down with the west’s ongoing water struggles, then
throw extended drought on top of it, and Hayes doesn’t believe
that’s out of the question. He’s not raising any alarms; merely
pointing out it’s a possibility.
Through August, the
Climate Prediction Center predicts drought will persist or
intensify through much of California, Nevada, Utah, and parts of
Idaho, Montana and Wyoming. They predict some improvement in
Arizona.
In the meantime,
it’s a matter of figuring out how to deal with the current
drought (see When the Grass Isn’t).
Looking Ahead—La
Nina?
According to Hayes, the jury is still out on whether La Nina is
developing, as conjectured by some meteorologists in recent
months.
For the record, La
Nina is the cold phase of what the scientific community refers
to as the El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO), which is an
irregular fluctuation between warmer than usual and colder than
usual Pacific Ocean temperatures on the equator between South
America and the International Date Line. An El Nino occurs with
warmer than average ocean temperatures in the area; La Nina with
cooler than average temperatures.
If La Nina does
develop, conventional wisdom says it will compound the drought
impact in the southern half of the western U.S. That region
typically picks up moisture during El Nino years, while the
Northwest goes dry. It’s supposed to be the opposite in La Nina
years.
But, Hayes points out this past winter was borne by El Nino,
meaning the southern half of the western U.S. should have
received above normal levels of precipitation. Obviously, that
wasn’t the case.
Moreover, Hayes
points out the real key is defining drought in terms of impact,
rather than moisture compared to average. In other words, even
if the drought index says there is severe drought, is there
economic impact being felt? Or, just because an areas is
classified as only abnormally dry, it doesn’t mean that cows
haven’t already been forced to the hills or to the sale barn.
The NDMC is trying
to get its arms wrapped around drought impacts with the National
Drought Reporter, through which producers are encouraged to
provide input about how the drought is impacting them. You can
access this at
http://droughtreporter.unl.edu.
This and other
assessment tools are the reasons folks today know more quickly
and accurately how drought is moving around the country,
nationally right down to county level.
“Ten years ago you would not have had the assessment tools we
have now,” says Hayes. “The Internet revolutionized our ability
to gather and share information, and that momentum is still
increasing.”
This is the same
kind of revolution that Hayes is cautiously optimistic is poised
to take place in the area of forecasting during the next decade.
He says that has to do with a growing understanding of the
interactions between ocean and atmosphere, more accurate
computer modeling tools and the computer power to run them.
You can find the
U.S. Drought Monitor at
http://www.drought.unl.edu/dm/monitor.html
Drought
Definitions
Here are the classifications within the U.S. Drought
Monitor (http://www.drought.unl.edu/dm/monitor.html):
D0—Abnormally Dry -
Going into drought: short-term dryness slowing planting, growth
of crops or pastures. Coming out of drought: some lingering
water deficits; pastures or crops not fully recovered
D1—Moderate Drought
- Some damage to crops, pastures; streams, reservoirs, or wells
low, some water shortages developing or imminent; voluntary
water-use restrictions requested
D2—Severe Drought - Crop or pasture losses likely; water
shortages common; water restrictions imposed
D3—Extreme Drought
- Major crop/pasture losses; widespread water shortages or
restrictions
D4—Exceptional
Drought - Exceptional and widespread crop/pasture losses;
shortages of water in reservoirs, streams, and wells creating
water emergencies
When the
Grass isn’t There
“The price of feed is dictating that you need to think
hard about culling deeper and getting by with fewer
numbers,” says Jim Oltjen, extension animal systems
management specialist at the University of California,
Davis.
Though Oltjen is
referring to producers in the central coastal area of
California, specifically, this advice is applicable anywhere
that drought is moving cattle to alternate pasture earlier or
requiring lots more feed at home.
Oltjen did an
economic analysis a decade ago, evaluating the merits of culling
deeper or feeding more to get through a drought; the results
hold true today. In general terms Oltjen explains higher feed
costs lend themselves to deeper culling, while a cattle cycle
near its peak—more numbers and lower prices—favors keeping more;
the optimum response usually falls in between the two.
With both of these forces at work today—historically high feed
prices and calf prices near their historical peak—Oltjen
believes, “Now is the time to liquidate more cows, unless you
really believe these cattle prices are here for the long
haul…This is not the time to figure out how to buy enough hay to
get by for another year. You don’t feed your way out of a
drought.”
Speed Pays
How quickly a producer responds to drought is as important as
how a producer responds to it. After all, the insidious nature
of drought is such that you’re already into one before you know
it, necessarily. So, time has already been lost.
In other words, you
don’t wait until the cows aren’t breeding back or the calves are
almost weaned before taking action.
“The producers who
survive best during drought are those who adopt sound management
and financial plans and review them regularly,” says John
Paterson, extension beef cattle specialist at Montana State
University (MSU). “They make firm decisions, and act quickly and
early. Keep alert for opportunities such as buying or leasing
land instead of buying feed and replacing older animals with
younger ones.”
Speed is especially
beneficial when it comes to decisions concerning the four
primary factors that effect risk management during a drought,
part of a paper which Paterson assembled, along with other
extension beef cattle specialists: Rick Funston, University of
Nebraska; Greg Lardy, North Dakota State University and Ron
Carlstrom of MSU.
Incidentally, that
paper, Drought Management Strategies for Beef Cattle, is part of
the Cow-Calf Management Guide and Cattle Producer’s Library (http://www.avs.uidaho.edu/wbrc)
prepared by the Western Beef Resource Committee WBRC). This
group consists of extension specialists in 12 western states.
The library is an insightful collection of 239 fact sheets for
cattle producers, covering such topics as nutrition,
reproduction, animal health, management, marketing, finance and
drought management.
According to the
specialists who authored this particular paper, the primary risk
factors associated with risk management during drought include:
the total population of cattle in relation to feed availability;
how widespread the drought-area is; the time of year and the
likelihood of rain and return to adequate feed supplies in your
area; and evaluation of cash flow needs since borrowing your way
through a drought to maintain traditional herd size may inhibit
long-term profitability.
“During drought, decisions may often be made on emotion rather
than logic,” says Paterson (see Questions when facing Drought).
“The main goal is to make objective decisions and get skilled
help when necessary from your extension educator, beef
specialist, range specialist, or agricultural consultant.”
Keep marketing in
mind, too. Oltjen points out the market may be poised for one of
those rare occurrences when feeder prices actually move beyond
calf prices due to high feed costs. So, adding value to calves
with weight could provide added returns.
Of course, part of
drought response has to do with how you view it to begin with.
Oltjen spent some time on a sabbatical with Australian cattle
producers and their extension service during a terrible drought
in that country. He was taken by the fact that producers there
took it in stride as an expected event that they had already
planned for, rather than an unusual occurrence that required
lots of wondering and scrambling.
“I think we’re back
at that part of the cycle where you’ve learned to live through
it,” says Oltjen. “Cull deeper now, then be ready to expand when
the time is right, and to expand with your best stock.”
Of course, all of this is preaching to the choir when it comes
to veterans of previous droughts. Those folks are never to be
underestimated.
As Oltjen says,
“I’ve seen the ability of cattle producers to form partnerships,
find grass and everything else to make it work. That’s what
makes this industry so dynamic.”
Questions
when facing a Drought
Are my animals losing weight or not performing adequately?
Fertility of cows may decline when their body condition
score drops below a 4, especially at time of calving and
when they go into the breeding season in poor condition.
Early weaning of calves is one option that allows cows to
rebuild body reserves and rebreed the next year.
Will I have to
start to provide supplements? Producers generally have two
options for meeting the nutrient requirements of cattle on
drought-affected pastures and ranges: (1) provide supplemental
feed to ensure the cow herd has adequate energy , protein,
vitamins and minerals; (2) reduce the nutrient requirements of
the cow to a point where they can be met with available forage.
If the drought
continues, should I cull non-productive animals? Money and
diminishing feed reserves are too valuable to waste on cows that
are unproductive, not pregnant, or are unsound. These animals
are candidates for culling at any time, especially during
drought conditions.
What feeds are
available to the ranch? Try not to buy, or harvest,
weed-infested hay. The future cost of feeding weed-infested hay
far out-weighs its feed value in the short-run. If weedy hay
must be fed, feed in an area or holding pasture that is removed
from streams, riparian areas and wooded areas. Be sure to keep
cattle confined for several days after feeding the weedy hay to
prevent them from spreading viable seed from their digestive
tract.
Assuming that I
will have to purchase supplemental feeds, are they available and
at what cost? Available crop residues such as small grain
straws, and other byproducts of crop production represent
important methods of stretching tight feed supplies during
drought conditions. Pastures and native range that are dormant
due to drought conditions may be low in vitamin A, phosphorus,
and protein. Meeting the need for these nutrients is important
if cow herd productivity is to be maintained.
Is one option to
sell hay and buy back grain for limit feeding? The use of salt
to limit supplement intake may increase water intake 50-75%.
Water must not be limited in any way, or salt toxicity may
result. When using byproduct feedstuffs, make sure that the
mineral program is balanced. These feeds are typically high in
phosphorus and potentially high in sulfur, which may lead to
some mineral imbalances. The trace mineral levels may be
somewhat low as well.
Do I have the feed
resources to allow for full feeding vs. supplementary feeding
only vs. limit feeding of grain? Underfeeding nutrients lowers
production. Over-feeding nutrients increases feed expense and
reduces the net return over feed expense. Feed the highest
quality feeds to animals that have the highest nutrient
requirements (replacement heifers, growing calves and lactating
cows). Feed the lowest quality feeds to cows in the middle-stage
of pregnancy. Save the better quality feeds for those periods
just before and after calving. Consider substituting grains for
hay when these substitutions can balance the ration more
adequately at a lower price. Grain supplementation on pasture
can result in a catch 22. Excess supplemental grain can reduce
forage intake and digestibility, resulting in less energy
available to the animal from available forage. The reduction in
forage intake may not be undesirable during a drought. As a
general rule, up to 0.2% of body weight of supplemental grain
per head per day will not result in large decreases in forage
intake and digestion. For example, a 1,200 lbs. cow could
receive 2.4 lbs. of grain per day without drastically reducing
forage utilization.
Source: Adapted
from Drought Management Strategies for Beef Cattle (CL 1130),
from the Cow-Calf Management Guide and Cattle Producer’s
Library, prepared by the Western Beef Resource Committee (http://www.avs.uidaho.edu/wbrc) |
